It has been a tough week for the cryptocurrency market, primarily due to the Terra ecosystem collapse and its knock-on impact on Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and altcoin costs, plus the panic promoting that passed off after stablecoins misplaced their peg to the U.S. greenback.
The bearish headwinds for the crypto market have been constructing since late 2021 because the U.S. greenback gained energy and the United States Federal Reserve hinted that it could increase rates of interest all year long.
According to a current report from Delphi Digital, the 14-month RSI for the DXY has now “crossed above 70 for the primary time since its late 2014 to 2016 run up.”
This is notable as a result of 11 out of the 14 cases the place this beforehand occurred “led to a stronger greenback ~78% of the time over the next 12 months,” which factors to the chance that the ache for belongings may worsen.
On common, the DXY gained roughly 5.7% after its RSI rose above 70, which from May 13’s studying “would put the DXY Index simply shy of 111, its highest stage since 2002.”
Delphi Digital stated,
“Assuming the correlation between the DXY and BTC stays comparatively robust, this may not be welcoming information for the crypto market.”
Bitcoin is at a key space for worth bottoms
Taking an even bigger image method, BTC is now retesting its 200-week exponential shifting common (EMA) close to $26,990, which has “traditionally served as a key space for worth bottoms” in line with Delphi Digital.
Bitcoin can also be persevering with to carry above its long-term weekly assist vary of $28,000 to $30,000, which has confirmed to be a robust space of assist all through the current market turmoil.
While many merchants have been panic promoting in current days, Pantera Capital CEO Dan Morehead has taken a contrarian method, noting, “It’s greatest to purchase when [the] worth is properly beneath pattern. Now is a type of occasions.”
“Bitcoin has been this “low-cost” or cheaper relative to pattern solely 5% of time since Dec 2010. If you’ve the emotional and monetary sources, go the opposite manner.”
A phrase of warning was provided by Delphi Digital, nonetheless, which famous that “the most effective alternatives or “offers” available in the market will not be round for lengthy.”
Since BTC has been buying and selling within the $28,000 to $30,000 vary for an prolonged time period, “the longer we see worth construct in these areas, additional continuation turns into extra probably.”
If additional decline happens, the “weekly construction and quantity construction assist at $22,000 to $24,000” and the “2017 all-time excessive retests of $19,000 to $24,000” are the following main areas of assist.
Delphi Digital stated,
“Early indicators of capitulation are beginning to bleed by means of, however we will’t say we’re nearing the purpose of max ache simply but.”
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